NC Institute of Political Leadership Spring Poll

NEW HANOVER COUNTY POLL—PRESIDENTIAL, STATEWIDE AND COUNTY JOB APPROVAL RATINGS AND ISSUES

The Spring, 2009 Class of the Institute of Political Leadership interviewed 300 New Hanover County registered voters on Thursday and Friday evening, April 23rd and 24th, 2009. The poll has a margin of error of +or- 5.7%. The IOPL classes have conducted 43 polls—since February 1988—with over 10,500 New Hanover County voters.

The poll was conducted from the telephone call center of AOS Research Inc., of Wilmington, NC under the direction of Mr. Peter Higgins, President, and Ms. Christine Strahley, Vice President for Operations. Data compilation was conducted by Mr. Rich Warren, Director of Data Processing for AOS Research Inc.

For over 30 years, New Hanover County has been a “bellwether” county (along with 10 other counties) for statewide voting in North Carolina; that is, as New Hanover County votes, so votes the state.

ECONOMY, JOBS, TAXES AND GROWTH ISSUES LEAD CONCERNS

While twenty-seven percent (27%) of the most important county issues cited by voters in this survey deal with the problems of urban growth—traffic, roads, uncontrolled growth, water or sewer and environment/land use, that figure is down dramatically from the highs of well over 50% seen in 2005 and 2006. Traffic/road problems remained around 14% as a single-cited issue that was most important, the same level found in November 2008. But it had slipped to second on the list of single-cited issues with “taxes too high” coming in at 18%. Voters cited jobs/diversity of jobs and the economic crisis as the third overall important issues at 11.4%, but that was down from the 17.9 level in the November 2008 poll. By itself the “economic crisis” had declined from 10.9% in November 2008 to 6.7% in the latest poll, coming in below “taxes too high” (18.0%), “traffic/road problems” (13.7%), and “growth/planning/uncontrolled growth” (8.3%). “Not sure” accounted for 13.7% of overall responses from voters.

APPROVAL RATINGS FOR COMMISSIONERS CONTINUE DECLINE

New Hanover County Commissioners receive mixed ratings; 30% of the voters approve of the job the Commissioners are doing, 37% disapprove, 17% volunteer that they both approve and disapprove and 16% are uncertain how to rate them. Disapproval of the Commissioners increased by more than 3% since November and by more than 14% since 2005. Similarly, approval declined by 5.5% since November and by nearly 15% since 2005.

GOVERNOR PERDUE’S EARLY JOB RATING MIXED

Thirty-three percent (33%) of the New Hanover County voters approve of the job that Governor Perdue is doing, 31% disapprove, 7% volunteer that they both approve and disapprove and 29% say they aren’t sure. Not surprisingly, differences are related to voters’ party affiliation, although unaffiliated voters split almost equally with one-third approving, one-third disapproving, and the other one-third either unsure or both approving and disapproving.

SENATOR HAGAN’S EARLY JOB RATING MIXED

Thirty-four percent (34%) of New Hanover County voters approve of the job that freshman Senator Kay Hagan is doing, 22% disapprove, 6% volunteer that they both approve and disapprove and 38% say they aren’t sure. That 38% who aren’t sure is a particularly high number, but perhaps not so surprising given the relatively short time she has actually been in office.

SENATOR BURR’S JOB RATING ALSO MIXED

Thirty-four percent (33%) of New Hanover County voters approve of the job that Senator Richard Burr is doing, 24% disapprove, 8% volunteer that they both approve and disapprove and 36% say they aren’t sure. The 36% who respond seems very high given the fact that he has now in his 5th year in office.

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S JOB RATING BELOW NATIONAL RESULTS

New Hanover County voters give President Obama an overall 50% job approval rating, with 30% disapproving, 9% volunteering that they both approve and disapprove and 5% saying they are not sure. This compares to a recent Pew Research national poll showing his job approval at 63% and disapproval at 26%. Similar to the Pew Research findings, however, President Obama’s approval ratings reflect clear partisan divisions with 76% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans approving (93% and 30% in the Pew Research poll). Unaffiliated New Hanover County voters closely mirrored the Pew results with 56% approving and 28% disapproving (57% and 27% in Pew poll).

Comparison – Approval/Disapproval Job Ratings – Government Officials

SEWER AUTHORITY JOB RATING

Among New Hanover County voters, 53% disapprove of the way the new City of Wilmington and New Hanover County Water and Sewer Authority is doing its job, more than twice the number of those who approve (26%). Seven percent (7%) volunteer they both approve and disapprove and 14% are not sure.

TAX INCENTIVE TO TITAN AMERICA: DISAPPROVAL GROWS

Among New Hanover County voters, disapproval of the County Commission’s resolution to provide a $4 million tax incentive to Titan America Corporation has increased from 49% in November 2008 to 61% today. At the same time approval has declined from 35% to 24%. Approximately the same percentage of voters (15%) are either unsure or volunteer both approval and disapproval today as in November. Party affiliation appears to account for very little of the differences among voters, but women were four times more likely to disapprove than approve (66% to 16%) whereas 54% of men disapproved and 35% approved.